After the Narendra Modi was declared the PM candidate by BJP, the decade old partner in NDA, the JD(U) chose its way to apart from NDA. This strategy was of Nitish Kumar who anticipated that his development work would be rewarded in General Elections, but the mandate was not in favour of Nitish’s anticipation, and later this debacle in elections gave a surprisingly new combo of JD(U)-RJD Mahagathbandan which showed its victory in bye elections in Bihar by winning six seats out of ten.
This victory has put the Combo on high sky, but be it Lalu or Nitish, both are friends of circumstances as they have been vociferously critical of each other for more than fifteen years or so. In such a case, will this Combo survive till Bihar legislative elections.
The BJP is critical of JD(U) for not observing the gathbandhan dharma and every now and then, the new entrants of NDA (Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha) are sure for making Bihar free of this new Jungle Raaj as they call it in coming legislative elections due next year
Now rumours are doing rounds that Bihar may witness the biggest political realignment of the decade ahead of the assembly polls in 2015 with likely merger of RJD and the ruling JD(U) to counter the surging BJP. This is probably due the results of Haryana and Maharashtra.
This development has come nearly four months after Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar joined hands in Bihar and 10 days after leaders of the Samajwadi Party, the JD-U, the RJD and the Janata Dal-Secular announced a united front to counter the Narendra Modi government at the Centre.
The another reason for this anticipated prospective merger has its root in seat sharing as JD(U) has 118 MLAs, while Lalu’s is 23, so there may be more claim by JD(U) and RJD will demonstrate its core vote bank of MY equation which is still intact with Lalu more or less.
The JD-U ended a 17-year alliance with the BJP last year after Modi was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party and it has bitter political enemity with Lalu for more than twenty years or so.
Keeping the caste equation in mind, the BJP has already inducted three MPs to fulfill the caste ambitions of voters in shape of Rudy (Rajputs), Giriraj (Bhumihars) and Ramkripal Yadav to woo Yadavs who are still in the stronghold of Lalu. Though, Bhumihars and Rajputs are more or less inclined towards BJP. So, the cards are on the table, and strategists of political outfits are relying mainly on caste equation after adding the spices of Nitish brand of Bihari self respect and Modi’s Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas.But Why Nitish Kumar is denying these reports of merger when his minister and 8 term MLA Ramai Ram is in favor of merger and he is continuously fielding for that. He is openly saying that "Gathbandhan me dhokhadhadi ka chance rahta hai merger se majbooti aayegi" But Mr. Kumar knows that if they will merge their party may be JDU will loose complete credential in Bihar which he create in last two decades. When they will talk on candidature for coming assembly election may be he will be on downstairs due to cast sharing equation. Nitish Kumar may be little perplex about the move of Congress party also because Congress nothing to loose in Bihar. After the continuous debacle The oldest party will also try to shoot the works.
It is more or less true to voters that they are now giving mandates for one party and stable government, and sensing this Lalu-Nitish, being the old horses of political upheavals are pondering on the scope of merger, but it is politics. Let us see…………………..but if they combine and merge, certainly the vote banks of this combo will put sweat on the heads of BJP strategists.